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Creating more accurate data forecasts for strategic business decisions during COVID

Research and Approach

1. The preceding eight months of passenger totals on the supplied data were still not updated with actual figures presenting a great opportunity. I used media articles, industry resources and direct quotes from Eurostar stakeholders to compare the forecasted numbers for those months with actual reported numbers to confirm suspected discrepancies.

4. Finally, from the data collected above, I was able to start crafting the communication piece for the client...the narrative.

...data needs engagement. It deserves a love story.

The Result

From the final data, I was able to provide more accurate forecasts giving the client a better understanding of the actual inventory (CPMs) available in turn allowing for more accurate financial projections and for testing pricing structures.

Reflection

So how close did I get with my projections?

Passengers for November 2021:

The client's estimate was 716,424 passengers for November 2021, reflected by the dotted line on the graph in slide 3.My projection used a rudimentary 5% month-over-month growth assumption (so a 15% increase in passengers would be 20% the following month) based on trends seen in the data and came in at 287,838 passengers for November 2021.In November 2021 it was reported that Eurostar was operating 15 total trains from London. Assuming, given the state of restrictions in France, they were still operating with social distancing measures in that every other seat was empty, trains were running at half capacity still resulting in an estimated 216,000 passengers in November 2021.

Being off by 73 CPMs (cost per mille, AKA the cost of 1000 ad impressions) is a lot better than being off by 500 CPMs.

It's the difference of being short by only £2,190 instead of £15,000 at the end of the financial year...for this one month. This is assuming a base CPM of £30. Depending on where the shortfall occurs and the pricing structure involved, this could be a lot more depending on the month.

But I'm not a fan of being off at all.

It COULD be a lot more depending on the month but it doesn't have to. The right strategy would help us identify this long before it becomes an issue if we structure our business objectives around this idea.At the time of the presentation, I reflected on opportunities to create more accurate models on slide 3 "Opportunities" with more time resources available that would likely assist in a more precise prediction. The client opted not to invest further in this. This quick approach fit the limited resources of the project and still resulted in saving the client from assuming 3x the CPM inventory, selling more CMPs than they would be able to deliver on and estimating more income than realised in financial projections.One thing COVID has taught us is the importance of adopting a proactive approach to how we use data in our organisations and developing a long-term strategy that focuses on actively keeping an eye on the pulse of our forecasting.

Reflection

We headed into the summer before our first year with 12 of the 14 cohort spaces filled. The success of the Level 3 Diploma has led to the introduction of a Level 2 programme as well.I had the chance a year later to see all the students again after they had started their course--this time behind the equipment I helped source. They were interviewing participants at an Invisible Arts Network event involving the launch of a new immersive audio piece by a British artist. Their confidence and ease completely blew me away. It was so amazing to see and I can completely understand why the Head of Future Ed used to call falling under the spell of teaching as "catching the bug."

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Helping a 175-year-old institution into the digital age with the launch of a new diploma programme

Reflection - Part II

While my technical skills were strong at the onset of this project...they were pushed to the max with the array of new programmes and methods I had to learn for these activities including the stop motion studio (not used for the above gif), projection mapping with MadMapper, live motion tracking development with Adobe Character, video game development with gDevelop and 3-D printing. Of course, there were the traditional digital media tools that I have been using since I was in my teens including graphic design for print and digital media, animation and digital video creation, web development, email newsletters, presentations for open evenings, and copywriting.I worked with students from ten through to their early twenties leading workshops and taster sessions. Interactions with them also often included their parents during student interviews, often coordinating with the wonderful staff in the Assisted Learning Support when their presence could provide value to the discussion. I worked with the marketing team in promoting upcoming events across the organisation's marketing channels (merciful gatekeepers) and the outreach team to help us get access to secondary schools. I represented the new programme at the school's open evenings.

Technical Profile

Continuous Professional Development

The value of my contributions is limited by my knowledge gaps. As such, I prioritise reflective practise and lead by example by making it a constant in my life.Below are highlights from the 70+ CPD activities I've completed in the last few years.

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"In the contemporary world, destruction and violence can only be opposed by the creation of sense" ― this is the founding motto of DAH Theatre.